The relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the trend of the stock market
Is there any relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the trend of the stock market? There must be, and there must be a significant connection. Unfortunately, it is still a world-class problem to guide or predict the operation of the stock market with various macro indicators, especially the accurate operation. How difficult is it? I suggest you look at the biography of Keynes. As one of the greatest economists in history, Keynes almost couldn't turn over in stock market investment. We can think about why?
Back to the topic. The most important link index between the macroeconomy and the stock market is the interest rate, because it is not only the monetary refraction of the macro-economy but also directly affects the discount rate of the stock market. Theoretically, the higher the interest rate, the lower the valuation of high-risk assets such as the stock market. Therefore, there is a saying that "inflation does not have a bull market" (because inflation usually brings upward interest rates). However, such a seemingly simple relationship is extremely complex in actual operation.
For example, if the interest rate increases, the discount rate will rise, and the valuation should decline. However, when the interest rate begins to rise, it is often the time when the macro-economy starts to move from a downturn to a strong one. At this time, it seems that the discount rate has decreased, but the overall economic vitality has begun to rise, and the growth rate of corporate profits has increased. Do you think the valuation will certainly decline at this time? Not necessarily. Of course, with the continuous increase of interest rates, the cumulative increase of interest rates will eventually exceed the positive impact of the economic recovery itself (and the extremely high-interest rates themselves are a sharp tool to suppress the overheating of the economy), but how long will this process last? How many twists and turns? Completely unpredictable. Moreover, each economic segment will show its particularity. Otherwise, the investment will be invincible by relying on a "Merrill Lynch Investment clock" model.
In addition, it is generally believed that the reciprocal interest rate is the center of valuation, but this does not seem to be the case. Otherwise, in the low-interest rate or even zero interest rate environment of Japan and the United States, its valuation should have been "heaven" long ago. Even from the history of shares, this is not true. As for the relationship between interest rates and the stock market, it seems that it can be said that the low and high-interest rates themselves are not major factors affecting the stock market, but the range and speed of adjustment between high and low. It doesn't mean much to lower the price, but it will obviously have a significant impact if it decreases from a very high level to a large extent and rapidly, and vice versa. Its essence is the rapid and substantial change in the discount rate.
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