It is a very simple idea to use the power of compound interest

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It is a very simple idea to use the power of compound interest  Smart people are easily attracted by complex things, and underestimate the great influence and importance of simple ideas. But Monish Pabrai is a full pragmatist, and he will not fall into this trap. "It is a very simple idea to use the power of compound interest, a very simple idea to imitate, and a very simple idea to be honest." He said. However, when you apply some powerful ideas with great enthusiasm, the cumulative effect is "incomparable".
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为什么建议选择像屠夫一样的医生看病？

 为什么建议选择像屠夫一样的医生看病？



塔勒布在他的书《非对称风险》中写提出了一个非常有趣的假设，就是假如你需要一位外科医生给你做手术，假设两位候选人在同一家医院的同一个科室，而且排名也旗鼓相当。

作者这样写到：

第一位医生外表干练，带着一副银丝边框严禁，体型匀称，身材保持得很好，双手十分精致，谈吐不俗且举止优雅，一头银发梳得整整齐齐，你如果是导演，就肯定会选他担任电影里面外科医生的角色，他办公室的显眼位置上摆放着毕业文凭，显示出他本科和医学院都出自常春藤学校。

第二位医生看起来像一个屠夫，身材肥胖，有一双大手，谈吐粗俗，外表邋里邋遢，衬衫松松垮垮得露在皮带外面，无论哪个有名的东海岸裁缝，都无法把他的衬衫领口弄服帖，他用浓重的纽约口音旁若无人地讲话，嘴里还镶着一颗金牙。办公室墙上并没有挂任何文凭，暗示了他的教育背景可能没什么值得炫耀的：他可能读的是一所本地大学。他适合扮演电影里年轻国会议员身边快退休的胖保镖，或者新泽西一家咖啡餐厅的厨师。

作者表示，如果让他来选，他会克服以貌取人的倾向，立即选择那个长得像屠夫给我主刀。因为，如果一个人看起来不像是干这一行的，却又在这一行干了很长一段时间，这说明他需要比别人克服更多的困难，这种困难来自病人以貌取人的天然倾向带给他的不信任感，他一定是用卓越的医术成功扭转了别人对他不利的第一印象，否则他早就被淘汰了，根本干不了这么久。时间和现实联手帮我们过滤掉了那些能力不足的人，而时间和现实并不在乎长相！

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