Is the stock market predictable?
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When the market is greedy, it is more greedy, and when the market is afraid, it is inevitable for human nature, which is understandable. But if you want to be different, you need to be braver when the world is falling, at least not more trembling when trembling, not more depressed when depressed.
I've never seen anyone succeed because of prediction, but I've seen more than one beaten because of prediction. "Top-flight" and "bottom reading", these two unique skills of the stock market admired by retail investors, may not exist at all. Even Buffett, who "others are greedy, I fear, others fear me greedy", is no exception. In July 1999, after Buffett's Solar Valley annual meeting bearish on technology stocks, the fanatical NASDAQ index continued to rise by 80% until March 2000. In October 2008, when he published an article in the newspaper stating "buy the United States", the US stock market actually fell by 30% and didn't reach the bottom until March 2009.
"We don't need to have many good ideas in a year, but we need to stick to a good idea for many years."
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